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The development of solar photovoltaic industry in the long term prospects are more optimistic
2012-7-18

   In recent years, the photovoltaic industry can be described as ups and downs once the myth of wealth has now become a loss of cold. Enterprises, but also living in this industry is experiencing tempered. In fact, the photovoltaic industry, "Boom will decline," suffered by no means the capital market case. Like the domestic auto industry, also experienced a rapid development of industry of the first is in April last year negative growth, and then entered a low ebb. But, the cold wave of this time, the photovoltaic industry under severe than the automotive industry is more ferocious, the most prominent of which is industry overcapacity.

   However, industry experts, a healthy market, its capacity utilization should be 70% to 80%. Therefore, the capacity utilization has been more than double the photovoltaic industry is an urgent need to integrate this reshuffle and integration is already heating up. Moreover, this integration is necessary, any industry need to go through a transitional period in their growth process for young PV industry is no exception. Risk by machine, in the current industry pessimism, hope and opportunity is in fact quietly nurtured.

   The end of May, the Ministry of Finance announced that it will be arranged 97.9 billion yuan of energy saving and renewable energy special funds, an increase of 25.1 billion yuan more than last year. At the same time, the Golden Sun tender has to reach 1.79GW more than the market generally 1GW expected. Policy of "timely", in the short term to promote the photovoltaic industry has improved, but also pointed out the direction for the development of the industry.

   Analysis, the gradual fulfillment of the photovoltaic industry’s bad, in terms of industry policy level to further suppress the plate in the second half of the factors have been the gradual elimination. Caused due to internal interests of Italy, Germany, subsidies downward postponed and is expected within the emerging markets start late in the second quarter is expected to usher in the peak of the volume and price, if the price rebound basically the best in bad under the premise of the industry is expected to usher in a stage rally.

   The long term, the prospects for the development of solar photovoltaic industry is more optimistic. Under EPIA Statistics, 2011 global solar PV new capacity 27.65GW 2001 -2011 compound annual growth rate of 55.66%, 83.53 times in 2001; 2011 the global solar PV cumulative installed capacity 67.35GW 2001 of 37.62 times.

  In 2011, EPIA PV companies, power companies, national associations, energy agencies with high representative of the organization to conduct a large-scale data acquisition based on the global solar photovoltaic industry to support the assumption that the policy mechanisms for follow-up ( policy-driven programs), EPIA Forecast: 2015 new installed capacity of 2.64 times in 2010 ,2011-2015 compound annual growth rate of the global new installed capacity of 21.43%.

  Insiders said that is not difficult to see from the above data, the PV industry still has good prospects for development. As an important branch of the emerging industry, from the historical point of view of the photovoltaic industry development, the industry cycle is shorter. Currently, the industry is in a period of consolidation, the industry’s future will increase market concentration, size, brand, and technology of photovoltaic enterprises will continue to grow. Is the industry’s leading enterprises, industry consolidation help capacity is concentrated in the shuffling process of "survival of the fittest", and finally be able to "live" down the enterprise are strong.

   It is worth mentioning is that the PV industry has a long industrial chain, in the current industry downturn, not all companies are so pessimistic. For example, the manufacture of solar cells in the middle and lower reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain, and is the core component of the solar PV. As the prices of raw materials polysilicon film, the production costs decreased, a corresponding increase in product gross margin.

  The industry analyst pointed out that the resulting Overall, the PV industry upstream capacity expansion more serious, resulting in overcapacity, fierce competition, the upstream situation is more severe. In the industry downstream, relative uncertainty stronger. On the one hand by the smaller market labor factors, the cost of locking ability will be stronger. Upstream and downstream enterprises, especially the more prominent market position and competitive advantage, opportunities are more obvious.

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